Closing date:

RFP for comprehensive national risk assessment and mapping

City/location:
Dili
Organization:
United Nations Development Programme - Timor-Leste

This job posting has closed

Background

Hazards have been historically localized in Timor-Leste. They include floods and landslides, and prolonged dry spells , which impact food availability, insect infestations and diseases, and increase community vulnerabilities. Rainfall patterns are influenced by regional and cyclical climate events such as El Niño and La Niña. Furthermore, the northern and southern coasts are considered high-risk areas for earthquake hazards and associated tsunamis due to their proximity (100 km) to an active sub-duction zone . No major man-made disaster, other than the 2006 conflict, has been recorded so far but this may change with economic and industrial development (e.g. oil installations). While it is virtually impossible to anticipate all potential man-made disasters that could occur at any given moment, the response mechanisms and practicalities to human error or deliberate action are much the same as for natural disasters. The response to the 2006 crisis and the resulting humanitarian situation was a good example that illustrated the importance of a multi-sectoral, coordinated and integrated response, specifically to ensure basic protection to the affected population.

UNDP and the National Disaster Management Directorate (NDMD) have launched the project entitled “Strengthening Disaster Risk Management in Timor-Leste” (2011-2013). The overall objective of the project is to develop national Disaster Risk Management (DRM) capacity at the national and district levels, including in communities vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change. In order to achieve this objective, it was agreed to focus on four key priorities: (i) undertaking a National Multi Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Assessment as a basis for decision-making; (ii) mainstreaming DRM and Climate Risk Management (CRM) in Government sectoral planning; (iii) strengthening institutional and operational mechanisms for the implementation of the DRM Policy; and (iv) expanding community-based disaster risk reduction with special emphasis on promoting women's participation.

In April 2012, the National Comprehensive Hazard Assessment and Mapping was launched under the project and is expected to be completed by end August 2012. Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) is contracted by UNDP as the technical service provider.

The current terms of reference will continue the hazard profiling exercise and will focus on the first key priority, which consists of undertaking a national Exposure, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment.


Objective

The objective of this exercise is to create an evidence base of the risks facing to the country to feed into national and sector development plans; and to generate baselines for formulating long-term DRM policy, framework and law and programmes in Timor-Leste. The specific objectives of this exercise include:

• To identify and assess the exposure of people, property, critical facilities, infrastructure, and economic activities to the natural hazards.
• To assess the potential damage to the identified elements at risk with reference to expected hazard intensities.
• To create a national multi-hazard risk profile in terms of hazard and sector to be used for identifying priorities for national disaster risk reduction strategies. Risk should be expressed as potential losses (human and financial) rather than relative levels of risk.


Scope and context

Multi-hazards

• Build upon / collection of hazard zoning maps and plausible hazard event scenarios for the major hazards prevailing in Timor-Leste, i.e. wind storms, floods, droughts, landslides, coastal erosion, forest fires, tsunamis, and earthquakes.

Note: All event scenarios should be built for the predefined return periods, i.e. 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000 years in order that all risks are comparable for the various types of hazards.

Inventory of multi-sectoral exposures for the following elements at risk:

• Population in terms of its poverty or vulnerability;
• Buildings in terms of their structure type (wood-framed, concrete-framed, steel-framed, etc. ) and functionality (i.e. residential, commercial, industrial, and public);
• Livelihoods, i.e. livestock, crops, industries (the number, location and extent of exposure);
• Critical facilities, i.e. healthcare (hospitals, clinics, basic health unit, etc.), educational institutions (university, college, school, etc.), warehouses, stockpiles, banks, police stations, fire stations, etc.; and
• Infrastructures, i.e. roads, bridges, airports, ports, railways, dams, telecommunication network, power supply, etc.

Development of a comprehensive national risk profile, which reflects multi-hazard and multi-sectoral principles. The analysis unit for risk aggregation is proposed to be the sub-district level. Other units of analysis could be also considered in terms of the special requirements of the stakeholders.

Identification of national high-risk areas
in terms of different hazard type and sectors and relevant disaster risk reduction and response options.

Key activities

Comprehensive analysis of country situation

• Identify and evaluate hazard and risk assessment studies in both the country and the region;
• Identify all existing data sources and evaluate their availability, accessibility, and quality; identify data gaps and possible solutions to fill these gaps;
• Identify and evaluate Institutional capacity and professional expertise existing in the country;
• Identify existing DRR strategy, action plans, policy, regulations, etc.
• Identify current status and baselines, issues and challenges, national strength and weakness, external support needs in the context of national risk assessment.

Collect the already existing data and information of the conducted Hazard Profiling (will be accessible by end August 2012) which followed the steps as follows:

• Analyze environmental background in the context of hazard origins, in terms of global warming, El Niño/ El Niña pattern, sprawling urbanization, and environmental degradation;
• Catalog historic hazard events, i.e. the physical characteristics of hazards and a determination of various descriptors including sources of threats, magnitude, duration, frequency, probability, extent and intensity field (spatial distribution of intensity);
• Delineate and characterize hazard-prone areas including hazard zoning;
• Identify sources of threats, e.g. earthquake epi-centers;
• Characterize hazards in terms of their frequency and seasonality of occurrence;
• Develop comprehensive probabilistic hazard/event intensity fields;
• Identify most plausible event scenarios for the given timeframes.

Exposure assessment

• Create comprehensive categorization of the targeted elements at risk (i.e. population, buildings, livelihoods, critical facilities, and infrastructures) in terms of the hazard types selected;
• Create exposure datasets for relevant elements at risk using GRID method or dasymetric mapping methods;
• Conduct Quality Assurance and Quality Control for each dataset created.

Vulnerability assessment

• Create simple hazard intensity-damage relationship based on expert knowledge or derivation from the neighboring countries;
• Create simple damage-loss algorithms for each category of elements at risk;
• Identify damage state of the elements at risk by overlaying hazard maps with exposure maps.

Risk estimation and profiling

• Calculate probable maximum losses (PMLs) to life, property, livestock, facilities, and infrastructure for each hazard / event scenarios (return period = 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000 years);
• Profile risk by hazard, district, elements at risk, and timeframe;
• Create thematic and composite risk maps for relevant timeframes.

Identification of high-risk areas and relevant disaster risk reduction and response options

• Identify high-risk areas in the country by mapping the geospatial distribution of risks to different sectors;
• Propose possible risk reduction solutions in terms of the social-economic situation and public concerns of the country.

Note: The project will purchase the software (with all GIS applications, extensions, utilities and add-ons). NDMD and UNDP will facilitate access to data where needed from relevant public institutions, UN and commercial institutions respectively. This would include GIS data on buildings including housing, factories, roads, water supply, energy and other infrastructure, agricultural assets, economic activity, and population.

Validation and consultation

• Data and analyses will be validated during roundtable discussions with stakeholders, including CBDRM Working Group and District Disaster Management Committees, UN Agencies and NGOs.

Deliverables

In four weeks time after the start of the work: A synthesis report, including a non-technical executive summary, covering the content as follows:

• A comprehensive well-structured description of national multi-hazard risk profile; highlighting major hazards, risk patterns and their driving factors General patterns of risk; Potential partners
• A comprehensive inventory of existing data sources, data gaps and associated solutions;
• Country situation in the context of DRR including risk identification and assessment; Institutional capacities and gaps;
• Sources of risk information and existing information gaps (academic and scientific institutions, NGOs etc);
• A set of recommendations for disaster risk reduction and disaster response; and
• Recommendations for future studies.

In 12 weeks time following the start of the work: A set of national risk maps in electronic formats, together with relevant shapefiles, analyzed raster outputs, thematic data layers, data tables, and base maps which are used to produce those maps. All results should be replicated using the delivered data using a Windows-based PC. All shapefiles should include MetaData in a standard format .i.e FGDC (Federal Geographic Data Committee) or ISO (International Organization for Standardization).

In 14 weeks time following the start of the work: A well-structured documentation of all the methodologies used in the study.

In 16 weeks time following the start of the work: A project workshop to disseminating the key findings and explaining the implications.

Implementation Approach and Team


The project will be implemented by contracting the services of regional or international entities with proven track record and experience in conducting such assessments. UNDP and the National Disaster Management Directorate will support implementation in terms of facilitating access to information and stakeholders, monitoring progress and providing technical feedback. The project international chief technical advisor will act as the focal point to liaise with the entity.

The implementation team ideally includes the following key professionals:


• Team Leader/ Chief Technical Advisor
• Hydro-meteorologist
• Seismologist
• A structural engineer
• A social-economic scientist
• GIS specialist
• Two field data collectors

Required qualifications and experience

• A legally registered company/firm/institution/NGO in any country
• Proven track record of conducting hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment preferably in least-developed countries in South-east Asia
• Working experience with the Government of Timor-Leste and its development partners is an asset.
• Ability to mobilise the team as follows:

Team leader/ chief technical

• Master Degree in related sciences fields;
• At least 10 years of management experience;
• Experience in working with international organizations in Least Developed Countries preferably in Timor-Leste / South-East Asia is a strong asset;
• Previous professional experience in hazard and risk assessment;
• Proven track record of organisational, interpersonal and communication skills needed for effective team management and coordination;
• Strong record, including experience in preparation, mobilization and monitoring of research projects;
• Ability to work under pressure in a difficult multi-cultural environment on a wide range of tasks and deliver quality outputs on time;
• Demonstrated experience in gender equality and women’s empowerment is an asset;
• Good interpersonal skills and ability to communicate;
• Fluency in spoken and written English is a requirement. Working knowledge of at least one of the following languages: Tetum, Portuguese or Indonesian is an asset.

Hydro-meteorologist

• Master Degree in hydro-meteorology or related fields;
• At least 7 years of experience in hydro-meteorology assessments;
• Experience in working with international organizations in Least Developed Countries preferably in Timor-Leste / South-East Asia is a strong asset;
• Previous professional experience in hazard and risk assessment;
• Ability to work under pressure in a difficult multi-cultural environment on a wide range of tasks and deliver quality outputs on time;
• Good interpersonal skills and ability to communicate;
• Fluency in spoken and written English is a requirement. Working knowledge of at least one of the following languages: Tetum, Portuguese or Indonesian is an asset.

Seismologist

• Master Degree in Geology or related fields;
• At least 7 years of experience in seismology studies;
• Experience in working with international organizations in Least Developed Countries preferably in Timor-Leste / South-East Asia is a strong asset;
• Previous professional experience in hazard and risk assessment;
• Ability to work under pressure in a difficult multi-cultural environment on a wide range of tasks and deliver quality outputs on time;
• Good interpersonal skills and ability to communicate;
• Fluency in spoken and written English is a requirement. Working knowledge of at least one of the following languages: Tetum, Portuguese or Indonesian is an asset.

A Structural engineer

• University Degree in Engineering with at least 7 years of experience in Structural Engineering;
• Experience in working with international organizations in Least Developed Countries preferably in Timor-Leste / South-East Asia is a strong asset;
• Previous professional experience in hazard and risk assessment;
• Ability to work under pressure in a difficult multi-cultural environment on a wide range of tasks and deliver quality outputs on time;
• Good interpersonal skills and ability to communicate;
• Fluency in spoken and written English is a requirement. Working knowledge of at least one of the following languages: Tetum, Portuguese or Indonesian is an asset.

Socio-economist

• Master Degree in Social and Economic Sciences or related fields;
• At least 7 years of experience in socio-economic analysis;
• Experience in working with international organizations in Least Developed Countries preferably in Timor-Leste / South-East Asia is a strong asset;
• Experience in Timor-Leste and/ or the UN is an asset.
• Previous professional experience in hazard and risk assessment;
• Excellent socio-economic data analysis and reporting skills;
• Ability to work under pressure in a difficult multi-cultural environment on a wide range of tasks and deliver quality outputs on time;
• Good interpersonal skills and ability to communicate;
• Fluency in spoken and written English is a requirement. Working knowledge of at least one of the following languages: Tetum, Portuguese or Indonesian is an asset.

GIS specialist

• A Master degree in Geography, Geology, IT or related fields;
• At least 7 years of experience in mapping, GIS and Remote Sensing Experience;
• Regional and national knowledge of GIS4DRM and its applications;
• Experience and knowledge of products and tools of GIS4DRM;
• Strong visual communication skills, Info-graphics and Design;
• Previous professional experience in hazard and risk assessment;
• Strong experience in using ArcGIS Desktop – most importantly Raster Analyst and Spatial Analyst Extensions, ERDAS Imagine LPS – independently perform image analysis, supervised/unsupervised image classifications, knowledge of Open Source GIS softwares;
• Knowledge of the Planning tool for damage and losses from Natural Hazards (HAZUS), Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS) is a strong asset;
• Fluency in spoken and written English is a requirement. Working knowledge of at least one of the following languages: Tetum, Portuguese or Indonesian is an asset.

Field data collector and coordinator (2)

• A bachelor degree in Geography, IT, geology, hydrometeorology, social science or related fields;
• At least three years of experience in data collection for hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment;
• Regional and national knowledge and experience on data collection for hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment;
• Strong skills in spread sheets applications for analysis of large amounts of data;
• Experience goo record in working with the Government of Timor-Leste is an asset;
• Fluency in spoken and written English is a requirement. Working knowledge of at least of the following languages: Tetum, Portuguese or Indonesian is an asset.

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