How might El Niño affect wildfires in California?

Scientists and natural resource managers are closely watching the potential development of El Niño as it might increase rainfall in California and bring relief to the severe drought there (see footnote 1), writes S.-Y. Simon Wang in an article on Climate.gov. In the western United States, drought often brings a double punch: water shortfall plus wildfires. The West as a whole has experienced a relatively quiet fire season thus far, with fewer than 3 million acres burned between January 1-August 25 compared to the 10-year average of 5.4 million acres (see National Interagency Fire Center for more information). But California is well ahead of its 5-year average.

Numerous studies, including the latest National Climate Assessment, have reported a substantial increase in fire size and area burned in the Southwest over the past 30 years; these trends are projected to continue increasing in the future. The reason is intuitive: warmer temperatures, earlier springs, and faster snowmelt are driving the increases, and these trends are expected to continue along with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.