Expert of the Week   for  12 - 18 Oct 2015

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Rodney Martinez

International Director

International Research Centre on El Niño (CIIFEN) Expertise:  Climate variability (ENSO), climate applications and services and climate risk management and adaptation.

Former Navy Officer, Oceanographer, BMA in Development Projects Management. Regional Coordinator of ODINCARSA-IOC-UNESCO (2001-2009). CIIFEN Scientific Coordinator (2004-to present), CIIFEN Acting Director (2010-2012). Member of CLIVAR Pacific Panel- World Climate Research Programme (2005-2012). Co-Chair of the Open Program Area of Climate Experts on Climate Information for Risk Management and Adaptation from the Commission of Climatology-World Meteorological Organization (2010 to present). Member of the Joint Scientific Committee of the World Climate Research Programme (2013). Member of the Joint Steering Committee of the Global Climate Observing System GCOS (2015). Coordinator of several regional projects and activities related with Climate Risk management, early warning, information and data management, climate applications and adaptation. Coordinator of 29 regional training courses, participation as author or co-author in 46 publications and lecturer on more than 74 international conferences.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): related impacts and risk management.

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QQuestion by Dr Alberto Delgado

Estimado Dr. Rodney Martinez

¿Podría indicarnos que actividades desarrolla el CIIFEN con relación a Educación, Información y sensibilización al público (HFA 3) y que herramientas pone a disposición del público para la prevención? ¿Es posible solicitar a los expertos del CIIFEN una conferencia (sea virtual o presencial) dirigida al público en general?

Muchas gracias por su respuesta.

Dr Alberto Delgado Director | Disaster risk Reduction Peru International
Peru

APosted on 19 Oct 2015

Estimado Dr. Delgado:


Efectivamente uno de nuestros ejes de acción tiene que ver con comunicación y sensibilización a múltiples audiencias. Buena parte de nuestras herramientas están disponibles en:


http://www.ciifen.org/


http://www.ciifen.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&catid=69&id=511&Itemid=83 


Durante los últimos meses hemos contribuido en más de 60 foros regionales, subregionales, nacionales, locales, sectoriales tanto en Sudamérica como en Centroamérica y a nivel global.  Estaremos gustosos de contribuir en cualquier iniciativa que coadyuve a mitigar los impactos de El Niño 2015-2016 y lo único que se requiere es coordinarlos tiempos y la modalidad para la conferencia que puede ser virtual o presencial siempre que haya la logística necesaria.


Estamos a las órdenes.


Reciba un cordial saludo


QQuestion by Mr Guillermo Ladines

Dr. Rodney: Es certero establecer monitoreo de "El Niño" no solo nivel de la temperatura del agua de mar?. Los cultivos, el bosque, las aves y pájaros que circundan las zonas "afectadas", estimo, dan una serie de señales de que algo pasará con el clima. Parto del hecho que nunca ha sido desacertado recurrir a recursos visuales para ir formando algunas ideas...muchas gracias por su amable respuesta

Mr Guillermo Ladines Desarrollo Social | Grupo Hualtaco SAC
Peru

APosted on 16 Oct 2015

Estimado Guillermo, el monitoreo de El Niño implica no solo medir variables en el océano sino también en la atmósfera, por supuesto que esta es la aproximación más utilizada en la medida que se ha logrado un alto nivel de sistematización y estandarización de ciertas variables esenciales para el seguimiento del clima. El gran desafío es incluir otras variables ambientales en este análisis como las que usted menciona. por ello es que es fundamental promover la integración de la información climática clásica, con el conocimiento local para tener una verdadera comprensión de lo que pasa en el territorio de forma más real. Eso implica un gran esfuerzo de diáologo e interacción y apertura de las partes. Los bioindicadores, el conocimiento ancestral de señales climáticas, deben seguirse usando y complementando con los avances científicos en cuanto a la predicción del clima. El Niño no es la excepción.


Reciba un cordial saludo



QQuestion by Mr Abhishek Lodh

How does ElNino-LaNina effects Indian summer monsoon by affecting mid-tropospheric circulations ? Does it effects the formation of snow in Eurasia or Himalayas ? How does the whole monsoon system effected by ElNino-LaNina?

Mr Abhishek Lodh Project Scientist C | NCMRWF, Noida
India

APosted on 15 Oct 2015

Anomalies of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (ISMR) are related with ENSO. However, there other factors such as the Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation which is the atmospheric component of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). In recent studies, has been demonstrated that ENSO is not the only factor and probably not the main factor to influence in ISMR.


Askok et al, 2004, demonstrated that the IOD events affect the ISMR and apparently weaken or strenghten the influence of ENSO on ISMR. 

Now, to see what happens with tropospheric circulation  is critical to analyze the interaction between ENSO and the IOD to estimate the final effects in ISMR.

I strongly recommend to explore these links for more deep analysis:

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/grl_ashok  

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C3141:IACIOE%3E2.0.CO;2

http://www.tropmet.res.in/awnew/aw-86.pdf 


To see the current operational prediction of ISMR, please visit:

 http://www.tropmet.res.in/monsoon/files/seasonal_prediction.php


Regards

QQuestion by Dr Carolina Adler

Estimado Rodney
Much emphasis appears on preparedness for the coming El Niño, I wonder if you had any thoughts on how we may evaluate our experience afterwards. Two questions:
- How long can we expect the coming El Niño to last?
- What (in your opinion) should be key factors, processes or outcomes (from preparedness measures) for us to assess if we're improving our responses to El Niño?
Gracias!

Dr Carolina Adler Research Fellow | ETH Zurich
Switzerland

APosted on 15 Oct 2015

Dear Carolina:


The answers depend of the regions and countries. Therew strong differences which are still evident regarding prepardness. WEhile in some countries the process has been very positive since months ago, there are still countries discussing about El Niño existence which meand limited prepardness and expected higher impacts.


However, there are many positive examples about how the climate information trigered policy decisions and concrete actions. One of the indicators of course will be the comparison of past and curent impacts (human losses, social impacts, cost of losses). Other indicators could be the impacts per sector and the comparison with 97-98, which is the most appropiate base line.


El Niño is expected to peak between November 2015 and January 2016. After this the declination phase is slow and the influence will remain specially in the Tropical Eastern Pacific till June 2016.  We are facin an STRONG El Niño.


In addition to the previous indicators, we can add, the number of people well informed before andd during the event. It seems to me that  climate information chain to reach the last mile (small farmers, indigenous comunities, fishermen) is still the big challenge. However, great improvement has been evidenced in delivering information to Governmental authorities, policy makers, and representatives of sectors (big scale).


Regards


Rodney



THIS SESSION CONCLUDED ON

18
October
2015