The 30th Greater Horn of Africa climate outlook forum (GHACOF 30)

The meeting will also focus on the role of the regional climate outlook forum in providing early warnings for drought emergencies and other climate related disasters in the Greater Horn of Africa.

The Forum will bring together national experts from all the countries in the Greater Horn of Africa, along with regional and international experts involved in seasonal climate prediction and users of climate early warning advisories from sectors such as food security and disaster risk reduction. It is taking place after the region has been ravaged by severe drought in 2010/2011 followed by excessive rains in various equatorial areas including parts of Kenya and southern Somalia.

The Forum will provide a seasonal climate outlook for the all-important March to May long rainfall season. Among other factors, it will consider the prevailing La Niña event which is historically known to have an impact on the region’s rainy seasons. According to a WMO Update issued 10 February, weak to moderate La Niña conditions have prevailed since around October 2011 and are expected to persist until March to May 2012. The current La Niña is not as strong as the 2010/2011 event which was associated with the severe drought over parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia.

ICPAC, through its outlook forum process, had predicted that there would below normal rainfall leading to the 2010/2011 drought, and issued regular Climate Watch Updates on the situation.

The challenge lies in ensuring that such information provided by climate prediction scientists is available and appropriate to users and that it is acted upon by decision makers.

Forum participants will address what could be done differently (inter alia, by product developers at global, regional and national levels; through the climate outlook forum process; by the media and communications channels; and by decision-makers in all sectors) to help reduce the negative impacts of future droughts and other climate extremes to provide sustainable solutions to drought emergencies and other climate related disasters in the Greater Horn of Africa.

Several users’ workshops will take place during the Forum: agriculture and food security; water resources and renewable energy resources; disaster risk reduction and conflict early warning; and health with special reference to malaria outlook forum.