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Tsunami modelling of Manila Bay (the Philippines)

The time between the triggering event and the tsunami’s landfall is a key variable as it influences the effectiveness of tsunami early warning systems and the possibility of evacuation. Chile, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Peru, the Solomon Islands, Portugal, Tonga, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines all have particularly high levels of hazard, given that tsunamis could hit the shoreline in less than 15 minutes with wave heights in excess of 6 metres.

It is important to emphasize once again that hazard is modelled with a 10% probability of occurrence every 50 years, or in other words, a 500-year return period. Similarly, the actual tsunami hazard in any particular area in these countries depends on local topography, bathymetry and other factors. For example, while the Philippines could be subject to wave heights of up to 16 metres hitting the shoreline in only 9 minutes, Figure 2.32 shows that the most severe impact zones are outside of the city of Manila.

Keywords

  • Themes:Urban Risk & Planning
  • Hazards:Tsunami
  • Countries/Regions:Philippines

  • Short URL:http://preventionweb.net/go/10603

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