A new report from IFPRI examines the interplay between climate change, agriculture, and food security and provides projections for climate change’s impact on crop production, food prices, and malnutrition. Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation projects that in 2050, there will be 25 million additional malnourished children, a 90% increase in wheat prices, and a 15% decline in irrigated rice yields in developing countries, all compared to a scenario without climate change. Critically, agricultural productivity investments of US$7.1–7.3 billion are essential to avoid these negative impacts.
The report is the first to combine detailed modelling of crop growth under climate change with insights from an extremely detailed global agriculture model, and it also uses two climate scenarios to simulate future climate. For additional projections on crop yields, food prices, and human well-being effects, as well as detailed policy prescriptions.