Closing date:

International consultant: Team Leader, socio-economic impacts of climate change

City/location:
Cairo
Organization:
United Nations Development Programme - Egypt

This job posting has closed

Background

Egypt is located in northern Africa, bordering the Mediterranean Sea between Libya and Gaza strip, and shares its southern border with Sudan. The country has a total area of more than 1 million km2, but the populated area only reaches 78,990 km2, representing 7.8% of the total area. The coastline extends for 3,500 kilometers, facing the Mediterranean Sea in the north, and the Red Sea in the east. The coastal zone of Egypt is situated at the northern margin of the large hot and dry sub-tropical desert area of the Sahara and the Arabian Deserts.

The dominant feature of the northern coastal zone is the low lying delta of the River Nile, with its large cities, industry, flourishing agriculture and tourism. The delta and the narrow valley of the Nile comprise only 5.5% of Egypt's total area, but over 95% of its people and its agriculture. With the exception of small areas of cultivated land in the oases of the western desert, the coastlands west of the delta, and in Northern Sinai, the rest of Egypt is desert.

Egypt is one of the more vulnerable countries in the world to Climate Change. Sea level rise has the potential of displacing millions of farmers from the low lying lands in the Nile River Delta. It also threatens many coastal areas including built up and populated coastal areas. Changes in temperature are likely to put stress on cultivated crops and negatively impact agricultural production reducing food supply, increasing vulnerability and causing loss of employment. Climate change will also have a negative impact on irrigation and drinking water availability as a result of changes in the flow of the river Nile.

As party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Egypt submits regular reports to the UNFCCC in accordance with the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" enshrined in the Convention. These reports, entitled “National Communications” are intended to include information on emissions and removals of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and details of the activities undertaken to implement the Convention. National Communications usually contain information on national circumstances, vulnerability assessments, financial resources and transfer of technology, and education, training and public awareness, as well as, recommendations on needed policies and measures.

Egypt submitted its Initial National Communication (INC) report to UNFCCC Secretariat in 2000 including the inventory of GHGs emission for the base Year of 1990 as well as an identification of the mitigation opportunities, and an assessment of vulnerable sectors to climate change and proposed adaptation measures. With the assistance of the UNDP, the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency recently released the Second National Communication (SNC) Report that includes updated information on the above topics including GHG emissions for the base Year of 2000.

The most vulnerable sectors to climate change have been identified in the INC to be Coastal Zones, Agriculture and Water Resources while the SNC added to it health and tourism. Traditionally National Communication Reports are drafted by Scientists in the respective mitigation and adaptation fields. However, to get a fuller picture, the National Communication Reports need to be complemented with a socio-economic assessment of the impacts on the vulnerable sectors to provide the government with estimates of the reduction in GDP and loss in lands, jobs and infrastructure that can be associated with climate change.

Therefore, UNDP in collaboration with the Center for Future Studies, Information Decision Support Center (IDSC) of the Cabinet of Ministers will be assisting the Government of Egypt in preparing a national report that will focus on an assessment of the potential economic and social costs of climate change on Egypt and look at few options that would minimize these costs.

Duties and Responsibilities


Objective of the Consultancy:

The study on Socio- Economic Impact of Climate Change in Egypt, through rigorous economic analysis, is aimed to demonstrate that climate change is of critical importance to the short-, medium- and long-term development priorities of Egypt. To that end, the study will produce a nationally-owned, credible and widely disseminated analysis on the impact of climate change on the economy as a whole and on selected sectors important to national development. A sub-national level, more locally contextualized approach can also be considered in particularly vulnerable parts of the country.

The purpose of the study would be to provide evidence and analysis on the economics of climate change adaptation that is specific to Egypt. The study will contribute to a more detailed understanding of the costs of climate change impacts in the absence of adaptation policies and measures at the national level (sectorial and / or sub-national levels), with particular focus on the priority sectors subject to the anticipated impacts. The report aims to provide economic analysis for decision-makers that need to manage the impacts of climate change by minimizing negative impacts and maximizing any beneficial opportunities. Therefore, the report aims to provide policy recommendations for the Egyptian government for implementation of adaptation measures that will benefit the Human Development of the country.

The study team leader will lead a group of consultants with different specialties each addressing one of the vulnerable sectors in order to develop the final report. The study team leader will closely work with UNDP's Environmental Team. He/she will report to the Programme Officer while working under the supervision of the Resident Representative. The incumbent may be located elsewhere in the world while visiting Egypt at crucial stages of the study preparation.

Scope of Consultancy:


The study team leader will lead and guide a number of national economists and consultants in other disciplines who will be assigned the task to assess impacts on one or more vulnerable sectors as identified in Egypt's Second National Communication Report. In this regard, each economist will be supported by an expert in the respective field to provide him/her with the identified impact on the sector. The background papers will be based on the available data and if necessary data gaps will completed through a semi-detailed demographic ground survey.

The study will be carried out in two phases. Phase I is a scoping exercise, gathering information on climate change in the country and building consensus on priority issues as well as defining the scope of work, in consultation with national expert team and stakeholders. This phase will also identify the composition of expert team, roles, responsibilities and timeframes for expert inputs. Phase II is a detailed analysis, reporting and raising awareness on the subject matter.

Phase I - Initial scoping exercise and consultation with key stakeholders.

This exercise would determine the disaggregated level of country data and analysis required in relation to the impacts of climate change and assessment of the costs of adaptation policy options.

* Desk review of climate change initiatives, activities, research and existing capacities in Egypt and in the region that has relevance and identifies current adaptive capacity in the country.
* Comprehensive stakeholder analysis in the key sectors.
* Conduct consultations with the stakeholders on the methodology, scope and content of the study, based on national priorities;
* Collect all available data on climate in Egypt (this includes key historical data sets on temperature and precipitation and other individual events);
* Mobilize opinion of scientific community in Egypt on main hazards with biggest potential impact (e.g. change in precipitation patterns, heat waves, SLR etc);
* Review of current vulnerability and risk assessments available in Egypt; as highlighted in the Second National Communication report, identify gaps in assessing the impact of climate change nationally; and address the gaps as much as the scope of the study requires.
* Identify, interview, recruit necessary consultants and finalize composition of expert team.

Phase II – Cost-and-benefit analysis of climate change and adaptation.


Use existing and develop new analysis to assess impacts and costs of climate change in Egypt, including the following:

* Review the impact of the investigated scenarios in the Second National Communication Report on Egypt's economic growth and development objectives, including distributional impact on the poorest.
* Determine the extent to which climate has changed (climatology, hydrology, over the past 15 years), including the evidence of extreme weather events, scale and associated costs of damages caused due to historical climate, on the basis of existing data, or extrapolate them from global/general projections.
* Verify the most vulnerable sectors of economy as well as geographic areas subject to climate change impacts as described in the Second National Communication Report.
* Investigate the economic, social and environmental consequences of climate change in Egypt, especially in monetary terms/costing, taking into account the risks of increased climate variability and major irreversible impacts.
* The report will also include an evaluation of the number of people that might need to be relocated due to lost land and decrease in income.
* Quantify, as far as possible, the adaptation costs expected at different levels of global climate change scenarios, including taking no action (i.e. business as usual) scenarios;
* Draft Policy recommendations based on the above analysis and provide recommendations on choices relevant to Egypt's development objectives. Issues to be addressed include:

1. What is the “order of magnitude” for climate risks and the net economic costs of climate change impacts under different scenarios?

2. What is the menu of “no-regret/low-regret” adaptation options for Egypt or win-win measures?

3. What is the estimate of net benefits of adaptation options to specific climate change impacts for the purpose of choosing between different options?

4. How can international financial flows further support adaptation to already observed climate change and enhance climate-resilient development paths?

5. How can public and private capital be leveraged / enhanced to support efforts to both adapt to climate change and enhance climate-resilient development paths?

6. How can these opportunities be utilized to help meet Egypt's stated objectives within human development?

Deliverables:

The key product expected is the comprehensive analytical report that should, at least, include the following contents:

Executive summary;

* Introduction;
* Review of existing research and available data on climate change impact;
* Description of the assessment methodology;
* Situation analysis with regard to economic impacts of climate change on priority sectors/areas;
* Review the cost of adaptation options through ranging them (no regret / no cost; low regret / low cost; etc.), determine the options for change in policies and business practices that would help to better adapt to climate change in Egypt;

Recommendations on adaptation measures.

The consultant is also expected to produce briefs for policy and decision makers (e.g. Ministers) and press summarizing main findings and messages.

Competencies


* At least a MASTERS degree in environmental economics, international development or economics (preferably a PhD);
* Strong knowledge of social, economic, environmental and climate statistics, including qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection;
* To have experience and good understanding of relations within climate, coastal zones, water resources, tourism, agriculture and energy sectors;
* Excellent analytic abilities;
* Proven ability to work well on deadline and perform well under pressure, along with an ability to set priorities.
* Excellent English language skills, with ability to articulate clearly and compellingly in English; knowledge of Arabic language is an advantage.

Required Skills and Experience


* Minimum five years experience in project management (publications);
* Experience in leading teams of authors;
* Experience in integrating written outputs into a flawless, interesting and practical publication;
* Minimum ten years experience in analysing socio-economic issues, in particular those related to climate change;
* Proven experience in collecting, processing and analysing social and economic statistics;
* Proven experience in conducting/leading surveys/questionnaires (quantitative and qualitative social research);
* Experience in writing and publishing work for international organizations;
* Experience in knowledge management, particularly in preparation of knowledge products for international organizations;
* Experience in coordinating and managing groups of authors/experts in research/study initiatives and publications;
* Previous experience with leading the preparation and publication of major knowledge products in UN/UNDP is a great asset;
* Experience in advising policy-makers on climate change policies and programmes.

UNDP is committed to achieving workforce diversity in terms of gender, nationality and culture. Individuals from minority groups, indigenous groups and persons with disabilities are equally encouraged to apply. All applications will be treated with the strictest confidence.

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