The Horn of Africa (HOA), composed of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, suffers frequent natural disasters that commonly result in losses of life, destruction of infrastructure, and reduction of agricultural production. Formulating effective contingencies to respond to such emergencies is constrained by a limited understanding of the likelihood of a natural hazard occurring within a particular region and risks associated with that hazard. Robust early warning systems exist for national response and “hot spot” maps of risk have been produced at a global level; this level of resolution, however, is often not sufficient for sub-national resource distribution. This study considers four types of natural hazards: droughts, floods, earthquakes and locust infestations; and presents the probabilities of natural hazards and the risk to populations or agricultural systems within the HOA, calculated on 1° by 1° grid cells. Such an analysis can provide a regional understanding of the probability of natural hazards as well as a more specific local characterization of the associated risks.
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