Pocket GAR 2015

Figure 1 Share of life years lost relative to population by income group, 1990-2012

(Source: UNISDR with data from Noy, 2014.4)

Disaster losses remain substantial

Twenty-five years after UN Member States adopted the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and ten years after the adoption of the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), global disaster risk has not been reduced significantly. While improvements in disaster management have led to dramatic reductions in mortality in some countries, the economic losses from disasters are now reaching an average of US$250 billion to US$300 billion each year.3 More critically, the mortality and economic loss associated with extensive risks in low and middleincome countries are trending up.

The cost of disasters is equivalent to that of major diseases and is an economic and social burden

The concept of human life years can be used

to provide a better representation of disaster impact, as it provides a metric describing the time required to produce economic development and social progress. Between 1980 and 2012, around 42 million life years were lost in internationally reported disasters each year, a setback to development comparable to diseases such as tuberculosis.5

If these figures show that disaster loss is as much a critical global challenge to economic development and social progress as is disease, they also show that it is a challenge unequally shared. Over 90 per cent of the total life years lost in disasters are spread across low and middle-income countries (Figure 1).

Global risk poses a significant opportunity cost

While historical losses can explain the past, they do not necessarily provide a good guide to the future. Most disasters that could happen have not happened yet. A new Global Risk Assessment 6 highlights that the average annual losses (AAL) from earthquakes, tsunamis, tropical cyclones and river flooding are now estimated at US$314 billion in the built environment alone. The AAL can be interpreted as the amount that countries should be setting aside each year to cover future disaster losses; it thus represents an accumulating contingent liability. This is a significant opportunity cost, as these resources could be used for critical development investments.

Main findings