GAR 2015 Main Report

Part I - Chapter 4

4.1 Increasing extensive risk

Extensive disaster risk is magnified by drivers such as badly planned and managed urban development, environmental degradation, poverty and inequality, vulnerable rural livelihoods and weak governance. As a result, it continues to increase.

Extensive risk refers to the risk layer of high-frequency, low-severity losses. In general, this layer is not captured by global risk modelling, nor are the losses reported internationally. One key feature of the GAR (UNISDR, 2009a

UNISDR. 2009a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .

, 2011a, 2013a) has been to highlight the contingent liabilities associated with this risk layer, which tend to be absorbed by low-income households and communities, small businesses, and local and national governments, and which are a critical factor in poverty (UNISDR, 2009a

UNISDR. 2009a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .

Extensive risk manifests as large numbers of recurrent, small-scale, low-severity disasters which are mainly associated with flash floods, landslides, urban flooding, storms, fires and other localized events. In addition, damage from electrical storms and lightning is increasingly contributing to loss from extensive risk due to wildfires.1

UNISDR. 2009a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .

Unlike intensive risk, extensive risk is more closely associated with inequality and poverty than with earthquake fault lines and cyclone tracks. In many cases, the hazard, exposure and vulnerability are simultaneously configured through the underlying risk drivers. This also makes extensive risk an important poverty attribute.

In cities, for example, poverty forces low-income households to occupy areas of low land value that may be exposed to floods, landslides and other hazards (Wamsler, 2014

Wamsler, Christine. 2014,Urban focus in climate change adaptation and risk reduction, Klimat Fokus, No. 12 (2014). Lund University.. .

). Informal settlements are usually characterized by highly vulnerable housing and a deficit of risk-reducing infrastructure such as drainage (Mitlin and Satterthwaite, 2013

Mitlin, Diana and David Satterthwaite. 2013,Urban Poverty in the Global South, Scale and Nature. USA and Canada: Routledge Publishing.. .

). At the same time, speculative urban development, which can lead to the paving of green areas in rapidly expanding cities and subsidence due to the over-extraction of groundwater, may also increase the frequency and severity of urban flooding (UNISDR, 2013a

UNISDR. 2013a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: From Shared Risk to Shared Value: the Business Case for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .

). Unlike intensive risk, extensive risk is less closely associated with earthquake fault lines and cyclone tracks than with inequality and poverty. In many cases, the hazard, exposure and vulnerability are simultaneously constructed by the underlying risk drivers. For example, all of Panama’s municipal areas report extensive disaster losses even though the country lies south of the Caribbean hurricane belt and earthquakes are infrequent.

Given that extensive and intensive risk simply refer to different risk layers, any quantitative threshold between them is arbitrary. The GAR has used a statistically determined loss threshold (Box 4.1) within which a minimum number of disasters accumulate the maximum possible mortality and economic damage (UNISDR, 2011a

UNISDR. 2011a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .

, Annex II), though it would be equally valid to determine a threshold on the basis of return periods.

At the time when the HFA was adopted, the mortality, physical damage and economic loss from extensive risk had not been accounted for in national or international reports, except in a number of Latin American countries.2 As a result,

	90 Part I - Chapter 4 4.1 Increasing extensive risk Extensive disaster risk is magnified by drivers such as badly planned and managed urban development, environmental degradation, poverty and inequality, vulnerable rural livelihoods and weak governance. As a result, it continues to increase. Extensive risk refers to the risk layer of high-frequency, low-severity losses. In general, this layer is not captured by global risk modelling, nor are the losses reported internationally. One key feature of the GAR (UNISDR, 2009a x UNISDR. 2009a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . , 2011a, 2013a) has been to highlight the contingent liabilities associated with this risk layer, which tend to be absorbed by low-income households and communities, small businesses, and local and national governments, and which are a critical factor in poverty (UNISDR, 2009a x UNISDR. 2009a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . ). Extensive risk manifests as large numbers of recurrent, small-scale, low-severity disasters which are mainly associated with flash floods, landslides, urban flooding, storms, fires and other localized events. In addition, damage from electrical storms and lightning is increasingly contributing to loss from extensive risk due to wildfires.1 Extensive disaster risk is magnified by drivers such as badly planned and managed urban development, environmental degradation, poverty and inequality, vulnerable rural livelihoods and weak governance. This risk layer is characteristic of informal urban settlements and low-income rural areas (UNISDR, 2009a x UNISDR. 2009a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . ). Unlike intensive risk, extensive risk is more closely associated with inequality and poverty than with earthquake fault lines and cyclone tracks. In many cases, the hazard, exposure and vulnerability are simultaneously configured through the underlying risk drivers. This also makes extensive risk an important poverty attribute. In cities, for example, poverty forces low-income households to occupy areas of low land value that may be exposed to floods, landslides and other hazards (Wamsler, 2014 x Wamsler, Christine. 2014,Urban focus in climate change adaptation and risk reduction, Klimat Fokus, No. 12 (2014). Lund University.. . ). Informal settlements are usually characterized by highly vulnerable housing and a deficit of risk-reducing infrastructure such as drainage (Mitlin and Satterthwaite, 2013 x Mitlin, Diana and David Satterthwaite. 2013,Urban Poverty in the Global South, Scale and Nature. USA and Canada: Routledge Publishing.. . ). At the same time, speculative urban development, which can lead to the paving of green areas in rapidly expanding cities and subsidence due to the over-extraction of groundwater, may also increase the frequency and severity of urban flooding (UNISDR, 2013a x UNISDR. 2013a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: From Shared Risk to Shared Value: the Business Case for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . ). Unlike intensive risk, extensive risk is less closely associated with earthquake fault lines and cyclone tracks than with inequality and poverty. In many cases, the hazard, exposure and vulnerability are simultaneously constructed by the underlying risk drivers. For example, all of Panama’s municipal areas report extensive disaster losses even though the country lies south of the Caribbean hurricane belt and earthquakes are infrequent. Given that extensive and intensive risk simply refer to different risk layers, any quantitative threshold between them is arbitrary. The GAR has used a statistically determined loss threshold (Box 4.1) within which a minimum number of disasters accumulate the maximum possible mortality and economic damage (UNISDR, 2011a x UNISDR. 2011a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . , Annex II), though it would be equally valid to determine a threshold on the basis of return periods. At the time when the HFA was adopted, the mortality, physical damage and economic loss from extensive risk had not been accounted for in national or international reports, except in a number of Latin American countries.2 As a result,	Page 1 Page 10 Page 20 Page 30 Page 40 Page 50 Page 60 Page 70 Page 80 Page 81 Page 82 Page 83 Page 84 Page 85 Page 86 Page 87 Page 88 Page 89 Page 90 Page 91 ->Page 92 Page 93 Page 94 Page 95 Page 96 Page 97 Page 98 Page 99 Page 100 Page 101 Page 102 Page 103 Page 104 Page 110 Page 120 Page 130 Page 140 Page 150 Page 160 Page 170 Page 180 Page 190 Page 200 Page 210 Page 220 Page 230 Page 240 Page 250 Page 260 Page 270 Page 280 Page 290 Page 300 Page 310