GAR 2015 Main Report

Part I - Chapter 3

Figure 3.36 Malawi maize production loss in tons with respect to 2007 countrywide production of maize

(Source:

Jayanthi, 2014

Jayanthi, Harikishan. 2014,Assessing the agricultural drought risks for principal rainfed crops due to changing climate scenarios using satellite estimated rainfall in Africa, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction..
Click here to view this GAR paper.

Table 3.3 Estimated maize production losses in Malawi with and without climate change

(Source:

Jayanthi, 2014

For example, losses in maize production from a 1-in-25-year drought in Malawi are estimated to be 23 per cent higher in 2016-2035 than in 19812010 based on near-future climate change scenarios (Figure 3.36).

Climate change could result in significant additional losses in maize production (Table 3.3) and potentially push countries like Malawi over a resilience threshold in terms of the national economy as well as poverty.

In contrast, climate change could have a positive impact on maize and millet yields in Kenya and Niger, respectively ( GAR 13 paper

Jayanthi, 2014

). The results also show that the impact of climate change could be different depending on the intensity of drought.

The agricultural drought risk to maize in the Kenya Rift Valley, for example, is forecast to decline in the near future (2016-2035) due to the impact of climate change. In the climate change scenario, PML100 (probable maximum loss corresponding to a 1-in-100-year drought) would fall

	86 Part I - Chapter 3 Figure 3.36 Malawi maize production loss in tons with respect to 2007 countrywide production of maize (Source: Jayanthi, 2014 x Jayanthi, Harikishan. 2014,Assessing the agricultural drought risks for principal rainfed crops due to changing climate scenarios using satellite estimated rainfall in Africa, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.. Click here to view this GAR paper. .) Table 3.3 Estimated maize production losses in Malawi with and without climate change (Source: Jayanthi, 2014 x Jayanthi, Harikishan. 2014,Assessing the agricultural drought risks for principal rainfed crops due to changing climate scenarios using satellite estimated rainfall in Africa, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.. Click here to view this GAR paper. .) For example, losses in maize production from a 1-in-25-year drought in Malawi are estimated to be 23 per cent higher in 2016-2035 than in 19812010 based on near-future climate change scenarios (Figure 3.36). Climate change could result in significant additional losses in maize production (Table 3.3) and potentially push countries like Malawi over a resilience threshold in terms of the national economy as well as poverty. In contrast, climate change could have a positive impact on maize and millet yields in Kenya and Niger, respectively (Jayanthi, 2014 x Jayanthi, Harikishan. 2014,Assessing the agricultural drought risks for principal rainfed crops due to changing climate scenarios using satellite estimated rainfall in Africa, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). The results also show that the impact of climate change could be different depending on the intensity of drought. The agricultural drought risk to maize in the Kenya Rift Valley, for example, is forecast to decline in the near future (2016-2035) due to the impact of climate change. In the climate change scenario, PML100 (probable maximum loss corresponding to a 1-in-100-year drought) would fall	Page 1 Page 10 Page 20 Page 30 Page 40 Page 50 Page 60 Page 70 Page 76 Page 77 Page 78 Page 79 Page 80 Page 81 Page 82 Page 83 Page 84 Page 85 Page 86 Page 87 ->Page 88 Page 89 Page 90 Page 91 Page 92 Page 93 Page 94 Page 95 Page 96 Page 97 Page 98 Page 99 Page 100 Page 110 Page 120 Page 130 Page 140 Page 150 Page 160 Page 170 Page 180 Page 190 Page 200 Page 210 Page 220 Page 230 Page 240 Page 250 Page 260 Page 270 Page 280 Page 290 Page 300 Page 310