SomaliaDisaster & Risk Profile

Basic Country Statistics and Indicators (2014)

Population

What's this?

Total Population

Total Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship - except for refugees not permanently settled in the country of asylum, who are generally considered part of the population of their country of origin. The values shown are midyear estimates.

Why does it matterPopulation is one core factor of risk generation as it implies the settlement of people and assets that can lead to an increase of the exposure and the vulnerability to hazards.

SourceWorld Bank Development indicators - http://data.worldbank.org/

Urban population, Urban Population Growth

Urban Population refers to people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices. It is calculated using World Bank population estimates and urban ratios from the United Nations World Urbanization Prospects.

Why does it matterUrban Population growth which is often accompanying unmanageable sprawling and unmanaged settlements, can be seen as a driver of disaster risk, since rapid and unregulated urban development can contribute to the concentration of people and assets in hazardous locations.

SourceWorld Bank Development indicators - http://data.worldbank.org/

Population density

Population density is midyear population divided by land area in square kilometres. Land area is a country's total area, excluding area under inland water bodies, national claims to continental shelf, and exclusive economic zones. In most cases the definition of inland water bodies includes major rivers and lakes (The World Bank Economic Development Indicator).

Why does it matterA high population density can increase the exposure and the vulnerability to disasters, when the people and the assets exposed are not settled in a planned and sustainable manner; when this is the case, a hazardous event can lead to increased damage and loss.

SourceWorld Bank Development indicators - http://data.worldbank.org/

Population million people 10,495,583
Urban % Total population 38.612
Rural % Total population 61.388
Urban population growth % Annual 4.100
Population density People / km2 16.7

Economic indicators

What's this?

GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the value of a country's overall output of goods and services (typically during one fiscal year) at market prices, excluding net income from abroad. It is calculated at purchaser's prices and is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using single year official exchange rates. For a few countries where the official exchange rate does not reflect the rate effectively applied to actual foreign exchange transactions, an alternative conversion factor is used (The World Bank Economic Development Indicator).

Why does it matterGDP generally measures the economic capacity/vitality of a country for a given year.

SourceWorld bank Development indicators - http://data.worldbank.org/

GDP per capita

GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars (The World Bank Economic Development Indicator).

Why does it matterDividing the GDP by the number of persons gives an indication of the individuals economic well-being in a country for a given year.

SourceWorld bank Development indicators - http://data.worldbank.org/

Capital stock

Capital stock as referred to in GAR15 in the context of risk assessments is the total value of commercial and residential buildings, schools and hospitals in each country. This excludes infrastructure such as roads, telecommunications and water supply (UNISDR).

Why does it matterCapital stock as defined in GAR 15, gives an idea of the value of the exposed assets and can be used to assess a country's average annual loss or probable maximum loss.

SourceGAR 2014 - http://www.preventionweb.net; Di Bono, 2014

GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation)

GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) - formerly gross domestic fixed investment - includes land improvements (fences, ditches, drains, and so on); plant, machinery, and equipment purchases; and the construction of roads, railways, and the like, including schools, offices, hospitals, private residential dwellings, and commercial and industrial buildings. According to the 1993 SNA, net acquisitions of valuables are also considered capital formation. Data are in current U.S. dollars (The World Bank Economic Development Indicator).

Why does it matterIn the context of GAR, GFCF is the total investment of a country in new infrastructure and improvement of existing infrastructure for a given year. This indicator is compared with Average Annual Loss (AAL ) giving an idea of how much investment would be needed to cover future losses. GFCF is flow concept of a given year while capital stock is accumulated stock concept.

SourceWorld bank Development indicators - http://data.worldbank.org/

Social Expenditure

Social Expenditure relates to government spending on education, health and social protection (The World Bank Economic Development Indicator).

Why does it matterIn the context of GAR, social expenditure is compared with Average Annual Loss (AAL )to provide an idea of the implications of the potential negative impact on the social expenditure and accompanying loss of social welfare of a country.

SourceInternational Labour Organisation, ILO: Total Social Protection expenditure, 2012; Public Health Care expenditure, 2012; World Bank Development indicators, Public Education expenditure, 2011

Total reserves

Total reserves minus gold comprise special drawing rights, reserves of IMF members held by the IMF, and holdings of foreign exchange under the control of monetary authorities. Gold holdings are excluded. Data are in current U.S. dollars (The World Bank Economic Development Indicator).

Why does it matterTotal reserves suggests an element of a countries' capacity and ability to finance disaster recovery and reconstruction.

SourceWorld bank Development indicators - http://data.worldbank.org/

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Million US$ 917.044
GDP per capita Per capita US$ 145.07
Capital stock Million US$ 6,408
GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) Million US$ 136.639
Social Expenditure Million US$ 0
Gross Savings Million US$ 175.216
Total reserves Million US$ 15.400

Internationally Reported Losses 1990 - 2014 EMDAT

What's this?

EM-DAT International Disaster Database

For a disaster to be entered into the database at least one of the following criteria must be fulfilled:

  • Ten (10) or more people reported killed.
  • Hundred (100) or more people reported affected.
  • Declaration of a state of emergency.
  • Call for international assistance.

SourceEM-DAT (Feb. 2015) - The OFDA/CRED - International Disaster Database http://www.emdat.be - Université catholique de Louvain Brussels - Belgium

CRED EM-DAT (Feb. 2015) : The OFDA/CRED - International Disaster Database www.emdat.be Université catholique de Louvain Brussels - Belgium.

Frequency

Mortality

Economic issues

10-year moving average 2005-2014
Events 3
Deaths 2037
Economic loss (,000 US$) 37,502

Probabilistic risk results

What's this?

Probabilistic Risk

Probabilistic risk assessment uses mathematical models to combine any possible future hazard scenarios, information about the exposed assets and the vulnerability, to provide results of an estimate of probable loss levels in a region of interest. Unlike historical estimates, probabilistic risk assessment takes into account all disasters that can occur in the future, including very intensive losses with long return periods, and does overcomes the limitations associated with estimated derived from historical disaster loss data.

Why does it matterProbabilistic risk assessment gives an overview of estimated losses, which can provide guidance to predict and plan for future losses. This information can be used to plan and prioritize investments and strategies for managing disaster risk.

Source UNISDR (GAR) - http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2015/en/home/

View morePreventionweb - Understanding Disaster Risk - Deterministic and probabilistic risk - http://www.preventionweb.net/risk/deterministic-probabilistic-risk

Average Annual Loss (AAL)

The Average Annual Loss is the expected loss per annum associated to the occurrence of future perils assuming a very long observation timeframe.

Why does it matterIt considers the damage caused on the exposed elements by small, moderate and extreme events and results a useful and robust metric for risk ranking and comparisons.

AAL Flood results are provisional. These results give an overview of the risk associated with river flooding. Factors other than the depth of the water also have a considerable influence on loss, which means that there is greater uncertainty compared with other hazards.

Probable Maximum Loss (PML)

The Probable Maximum Loss is a risk metric that represents the maximum loss that could be expected, on average, within a given number of years.

Why does it matterPML is widely used to establish limits related to the size of reserves that, for example, insurance companies or a government should have available to buffer losses: the higher the return period, the higher the expected loss. PML always have associated a mean return period.

Mean return period of 100, 250, 500, 1000 and 1500 years means the 5%, 2%, 1%, 0.5% and 0.3% probability respectively of exceeding those losses in 5 years.

Average Annual Loss (AAL) by hazard

Hazard
 
Absolute
[Million US$]
Capital
stock [%]
GFCF
[%]
Social
exp [%]
Total
Reserves [%]
Gross
Savings [%]
Earthquake 0.16 0.002 0.117 0.000 1.039 0.091
Flood 28.37 0.443 20.763 0.000 184.221 16.191
Multi-Hazard 28.53 0.445 20.880 0.000 185.260 16.283

Hazard contribution to AAL

Probable Maximum Loss (PML) - Mean return period in years

Hazard*
 
20 50 100 250 500 1000 1500
Earthquake 0 1 2 5 10 19 25
Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Storm Surge 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tsunami 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
* Values for hazard are in million US$

INFORM 2015 Risk Index

What's this?

INFORM 2015 Risk Index

The INFORM model adopts the three aspects of vulnerability reflected in the UNISDR definition. The aspects of physical exposure and physical vulnerability are integrated in the hazard & exposure dimension, the aspect of fragility of the socio-economic system becomes INFORM's vulnerability dimension while lack of resilience to cope and recover is treated under the lack of coping capacity dimension.

SourceIndex for Risk Management 2015 (INFORM 2015) - Inter-Agency Standing Committee Task Team for Preparedness and Resilience and the European Commission- http://www.inform-index.org

INFORM 2015 risk index map

  Value Rank Trend
INFORM 8.85 1 EQUAL
Hazard 8.64 2 EQUAL
Vulnerability 8.41 1 EQUAL
Coping Capacity 9.55 1 EQUAL