Extreme weather events attribution

Attribution science has emerged over the past few decades to answer precisely these questions. And like any scientific field, it deserves thoughtful examination of its methods, limitations, and contributions.

A record‑breaking March heatwave across western North America was made virtually impossible without human‑driven climate change, with temperatures up to 17°C above average and severe risks to health, water supplies and ecosystems.

New attribution research shows how extra heat in the atmosphere can turn thunderstorms into factories for dangerous, softball-size hail.

In a groundbreaking study, researchers have developed a new method for computing the hazards from extreme events: it can compute all relevant hazard metrics for events such as heat waves, floods and droughts in any region worldwide.

A global team of leading researchers found that similar three-day heat events that were experienced across Australia in early January 2026, should now be expected once every 5 years, instead of once every 25 years.

This study unpacks the role of anthropogenic climate change and the preceding El Niño conditions on the extreme rainfall using a probabilistic event attribution.

Human-caused climate change has a “fingerprint” on weather that scientists can distinguish from the signals of natural climate variability. This fingerprint of human-caused climate change can be identified and measured in daily weather and extreme events.

From boreal winter 2020/21 onwards, a large region in West Asia, encompassing the Fertile Crescent around the rivers Euphrates and Tigris as well as Iran has suffered from exceptionally low rains and elevated temperatures.

In early October 2025, three days of very heavy rainfall hit the Eastern coast of Mexico, causing widespread flooding, overflowing rivers, and numerous landslides.

Early on October 28th, Hurricane Melissa made landfall on the southern coast of Jamaica as a Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, bringing extreme winds, torrential rainfall, and life-threatening storm surges to coastal areas.